By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. The upper Midwest, upstate New York, and northern New England are home to a disproportionate share of high scoring counties, they said. The voter shift is happening statewide, and despite Democrats having 750,000 more registered voters, Republicans have gained 75,000 since 2016, while Democrats have lost 91,000. They've been dubbed "bellwether counties" and until this year,. He told The Epoch Times that hes facing workforce shortages and currently only has 18 cookshalf of what he normally would have. Thus, as polarization rises, the potential for counties shifting their mean party preference across different elections declines. Where there used to be eight auto plants in Wayne County now there is only one, the GMC Truck plant, he said. Sam, who is a truck driver for Four City Technologies in Wellington but lives in Marblehead, said he drives about 400 miles a day to deliver bolts, nuts, and screws used in the auto industry. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). Armagost was lucky during the shutdowns, as bike shop repairs and maintenance were considered essential and he remained in business. HOW THE SPECTER OF COMMUNISM IS RULING OUR WORLD. He likes how the Democratic Party helps lower-income people. Here, a farming operation is pictured in Bowling Green, Ohio in Wood County, a bellwether county in America's Heartland experiencing problems such as inflation and high gas prices, affecting every day life. Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County, New Mexico. John Hawker, a 74-year-old Port Clinton resident who grew up in Toledo, was sitting at the end of the bar and also weighed in on the state of affairs. In a video posted to Twitter on Thursday, Trump 2020 Campaign Senior Advisor for Strategy Steve Cortes took a deep dive into the 2020 election data regarding President Donald Trump's overwhelmingly dominant performance in the United States' bellwether counties, adding to the statistical improbability of a Joe Biden electoral victory. In Terre Haute, 52-year-old Scott Hamilton said the main issue for him in this election is how divided the nation is; he said Trump is mostly to blame. If I look back on my life, there is a swing toward the right, and then it swings back toward the left. The Epoch Times spoke with some voters in Terre Haute and surrounding towns on Oct. 20 to get a glimpse of the bellwether mood ahead of the presidential election. We find that bellwether success is almost entirely a matter of random coin tosses in multiple counties over time to create an appearance of predictive power that is a matter of chance. Blaine County. As far as Wood County being a bellwether county, we do have a mixed group of people here. He won Ohio by eight, Iowa by eight. Shepherd said being able to bear arms is of particular importance now and she fears Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden would restrict that right. She said she almost never votes, but this year decided to vote for President Donald Trump. The updated report showed that Biden won 509 counties, while Trump won 2,547 counties. And this years election is unlike any other, in which mail-in voting has become the norm, injecting an air of uncertainty into a year already full of upheaval. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Im looking at both sides of it. We were as far down to five cooks last year. His morals also include being honest, and he is bothered by what he sees as lies coming from both candidates. RIDGWAY, Pa.Tucked into a wooded valley in north-central Pennsylvania is the bellwether borough of Ridgway, the county seat . He likes that Trump upholds law and order amid the social unrest. Terry Titchner, 70, said hes voting for Biden because he doesnt trust Trump. In particular, recent research which identified nineteen bellwether counties found that they "tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole." Right now, its horrible. The 2012 outcome seemed to be the beginning of a more robust shift to the right for the countywhile the state reelected Obama, Elk County had already moved on. There is nothing we can do about it; the power is out of our hands.. Even wearing a mask, youre still not certain. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. Rob Portmans seat, Coppeler said. And its never going to come back.. In a 2020 article, Daniel Zimny-Schmitt and Michael Harris look for bellwether counties in the period 1980-2016 and identify nineteen such. We use cookies on this site to understand how you use our content, and to give you the best browsing experience. Both Hidalgo and Valencia County, New Mexico, are close to 60 percent Hispanic, while Westmoreland County in Virginia is almost one-third black. High scoring bellwether counties in these regions tend to border other high scoring counties, unlike their counterparts in the South and West, which tend to see high scoring bellwethers somewhat isolated from each other. But, he said, most mainstream politicians dont represent rural America, and issues such as boys that identify as girls and then compete in girls high school sports just smack of stupid., The economy and taxes are important issues to him, but the question he asks of the candidate is, Does this person care about my family?. If this thing continues, were going to be paying $6 a gallon for gas, he said. "If. Now, just because my president is Republican, I expected a swing to the right, but what we have nowthey broke the whole pendulum. Martin thinks the Democrats could have chosen a better candidate than Biden. Mike DeWine is running for reelection and facing candidates Joe Blystone, Jim Renacci, and Ron Hood in the primary. Data de l'entrada martin county clerk of court jobs; whats wrong secretary kim dramawiki . Of the 19 bellwether counties that have consistently voted for the presidential winner since 1980, all but one chose Trump, the Journal found, PJ Media reported. Of the 17 bellwether counties the margin of win by President Trump was 16 points on average! I think we needed somebody like him.. Its the rural American, pro-life, pro-Second Amendment county that gave the edge to Barack Obama in 2008. This shows not only his strength but also the level of polarisation that took place in the 2020 elections.. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. I look at the picture of what hes doing for my country.. The median household annual income is approximately, In 2016, nearly 100 million eligible Americans didnt vote. Longtime Bowling Green resident Doug Miller, a conservative and Donald Trump supporter who works as a chief operating officer for a heavy-duty trucking company in nearby Fremont, said the company, which was heavily affected during the pandemic, is still navigating challenges. His message to Trump is: Shut up and quit twittering. 2016 Trump. And the thing is, when they have these laws now that they arent enforcing, what good is another law going to be? He has since assessed each candidate on their moral stances, he said, rather than by party affiliation. It is as if the devastating rebuttals by Tufte in Data Analysis for Politics and Policy or the equally devastating review of the evidence in David A. Hopkins 2017 book Red Fighting Blue never happened. For example, across seven elections, we would expect to see 28 bellwether counties. A number of fertilizer plants closed across the country last year due to natural gas shortages. Vigo County voters supported Trump by a 15 percent margin in 2016. In Ridgway, Biden supporters were more difficult to find and more reluctant to talk than Trump supporters, but a few yard signs were dotted around. I would never vote any other way. . Visual inspection suggests that, like other counties, they voted in 2020 roughly as they did in 2016; given this (and given that many of these counties went solidly for Trump in 2016), it is unsurprising that Biden won only one of them. In 2020 the expansion also began generating $898,000 a year for the next 15 years for Lake Local Schools. Since Trump got voted in, it was when I started getting into politics, Tisdell told The Epoch Times while sitting in his garage. Comparing the most recent elections (2000-2020) to those in earlier periods (1960-1980), we find a striking decline in the proportion of bellwether counties, i.e., those with correct prediction in past elections. What are they going to do about gun rights? he said. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. He voted for Trump in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections and said hed vote for him again if he were the Republican nominee. Bergbower suspects Trump will win in the county by a smaller margin this year, but will win nonetheless. I believe in a time cycle. These 10 bellwether counties five in Sun Belt battlegrounds, five in the Frost Belt (loosely defined to include Iowa) could point us toward each state's winner. . Carol Jacobs and her husband were lifelong Democrats until 2016. Its just too depressing, too much bad and evil going on in the world, Shepherd told The Epoch Times. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. A state is considered a "bellwether state" if it usually . Figure 1 Counties expected to have unbroken or near unbroken string of correct matches with national election outcome if each county has a 50 percent chance of voting for the winner. Shepherds family, on the other hand, wasnt much interested in politics. In addition to Florida Gov. As Figure 1 shows, with roughly 3600 counties, the number of counties which correctly predict the elections outcome can be non-trivial even for relatively long sequence of elections when the probability of a correct prediction is exactly 50 percent, i.e., a coin flip. And we just want that to continue. January 5, 2021: Rep. Jordan attacks "liberal judges" and state officials for their role in the election. And the media is just taking it overboard., Shepherd said of Trump: I do know that he is not a selfish person. I think its very political right now, honestly. But thats not the picture I look at. Swept up in unproven voter fraud claims, the Shasta County Board of Supervisors has upended the county's election process, canceling its contract with . Given the global context of Russias invasion of Ukraine, they believe higher gas prices and inflation is coming, and theyre not happy about it. He predicts that many Trump voters will start to waver in the weeks leading up to the election and will end up not voting. Biden Extends National Emergency Due to Extraordinary Threat of Russian Actions in Ukraine, Tulsi Gabbard Says Election Fraud a 'Serious Threat,' Announces Bill Targeting Ballot Harvesting. Third, it lists the fraction of bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. This includes personalizing content and advertising. He says hell vote for Trump. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020. Nestled along Lake Erie in the northwest of. No one who spoke to The Epoch Times had anything positive to say about Wolfs continued shutdowns in the state. The majority of rural America are our hard-working, blue-collar workers. I dont think you should take that away from me.. The simple answer is that chance effects can be much greater than most people realize. There were lines of boaters with banners and flagsthere mustve been about 2,000 boats full of people participating, Tammy added. Since then, he has been doing odd jobs, such as cutting grass or trimming trees for neighbors. Im not happy with the way things are now. If he does not answer that issue clearly, I will not vote for him.. It seems that Im having to think about whos lying the least, Myers said. Moreover, if we look at the political features of the bellwethers, we do not find them exclusively among counties that are highly politically competitive. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about four points on average. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. One older woman with a Biden sign outside her home simply said, Im voting for Biden, and thats all Ive got to say.. Now the places emerging as possible new bellwethers have more racially diverse populations. This is a high farming community.. Your email address will not be published. I hope.. Jim Hoft. Westmoreland County, Virginia, is almost one third black. When Republican Dr. Ted Bowlus defeated Democrat Joel Kuhlman in the 2016 election, it completed a single-party commission. The 19 bellwether counties are highlighted in red. Ottawa County is on the doorstep of a Democratic stronghold, about 35 miles east of Toledo in neighboring Wood County. Westmoreland is the only one of the counties in the South, Clallam is the only one on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. This year, after seeing the country shut down amid the pandemic, and seeing riots break out in many cities, I just think its time that I should start voting, she said. Thus it would appear that bellwether. Nothing is free, Hawker said. The issues most important to Fannin include the economy, border security, and the virus. RIDGWAY, Pa.Tucked into a wooded valley in north-central Pennsylvania is the bellwether borough of Ridgway, the county seat of Elk County. First, we can readily imagine that some counties demographically/politically mirror the nation, and thus monitoring this small set of counties closely would tell us with high predictive reliability what will happen nationally. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. Ohios Ottawa County: Staying Afloat as One of the Top Bellwether Counties in the Country. Being poor, I do believe that we need a stable safety net for people. "The three potentially competitive races in Virginia with Democratic incumbents could be a national bellwether," veteran Virginia political analyst Bob Holsworth told The Epoch Times. Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Miller is often faced with tough decisions in his business. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. Eleven of the 19 were located in just six Midwestern states, and Wisconsin alone is home to four, they said. What happened to our Democratic Party? January 4, 2021: Rep. Jordan tweets an Epoch Times article about his effort to challenge Electoral College votes. Things happen for a reason, and its out of our control until things change, Brendon told The Epoch Times. Shortages are all over the place, Miller said. Tammy said that with the lakefront area being a popular spot for fishing and tourists, the price of gas always has been higher than average. Myerss morals include being respectful to others, and he thinks Trump has failed in that regard. Youre not getting anybody perfect. We are a rural county here, Hill told The Epoch Times. He is his own worst enemy.. We need creative leadership, Miller said. Results from 28 counties have still not been finalized, per Brookings Institution. All the negativity, and just pure anger for this one person in office I have never seen it before. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. This year, the local courthouse in Ridgway has been bustling with new voter registrations and party affiliation changes. . On . He is just outspoken and doesnt filter what he is saying.. The price of regular gas at the local Sheetz was $2.53already substantially higher than across the border in West Virginia, where $2.19 was the norm. We need to make sure we keep our gun rights.. I trust the system implicitly, he said. I feel that if Trump is president again, that will cease. I think all politicians are crooks. March 1, 2023 8:28 PM PT. Most of the jobs up here are part-time or seasonal. The Upper Mississippi River Valley and it [sic] surrounding area in particular appears to be an epicenter of these high-scoring bellwethers., Teresa Shepherd stands in front of her daughters house in Seelyvilee, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020.